Tuesday 11 March 2008

Bolivia's Gas

When a huge reserve of gas was discovered in Bolivia, all the south american’s country had their economies changed in any way.
For Bolivia, that new source of gas looked like a possible way to change its position as the poorest country in the South America. But as long as Bolivia was that poor, the country wasn’t able to explore and sell the gas by it self. So they needed foreign investments what made the gas’s profits shared between Bolivia and their investors.
But two years ago, Evo Morales became the new Bolivia’s president and he wanted to change this situation. In Morales point of view, all the gas profits need to stay in Bolivia and the only way that this could happen was with the nationalization of the Gas industry. With that decision , many foreign investors faced a lot of troubles with their forecasting and lost huge amounts of money.(One nice example is the Brazilian company Petrobras).http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5712c2a6-ebae-11dc-9493-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Maybe Petrobras was the most affected company with Evo’s decision. Although they have discovered a vast reserve of gas in Brazil last year, their forecasting was completely changed because they will need at least five years to start explore that gas and in that time they were planning to keep importing the Bolivia’s gas. But now they have to make a new forecast for the next years and they are facing problems to communicate the market about the newplans as we can see in this new in Petrobras website. http://www2.petrobras.com.br/portal/frame_ri.asp?pagina=/ri/ing/index.asp&lang=en&area=ri
This shows us how difficult is to communicate the market and investors about the company’s decisions and most of the cases companies will try to do it the best way, even if for it happen they have to hide some importants information .

Wednesday 5 March 2008

The influence of the American crisis in emerging countries:

For a long period of time, the emerging countries were very dependent of the central economies. In that time, a crisis in the United States economy would represent for sure at least a discomfort for those countries.

A recession in a big country, like U.S.A. or Japan for example, used to affect directly the production of emerging countries. For many years, emerging countries just produced outputs that they could sell and exports for other places, because their economies weren’t strong enough to keep its health just with the internal market.

Although the central countries still have important influence in the emerging economies, the recent U.S. subprimes crisis showed the world that emerging economies now-a- days can keep growing alone. For many specialists, the reasons for this are two facts.link FT

1) Emerging Markets are more structured today than years ago. So today, the financial fundamentals and their own infrastructure are improved in a way that countries can grow by their selves, not stimulated just for others anymore.

2) They have new trade’s partners. The amazing growth presented by the two most populated countries in the world, China and India, guarantee to the emerging counties some demand even in times of crisis in U.S. or Europe.